Oh facts, oh figures, how deceptive can you be!
The tale of Boro's haphazard 2013-14 is extremely interesting when you look at it from a strictly statistical perspective. Under Tony Mowbray and Mark Venus, Boro scored an incredible 25 goals in 15 games; under highly regarded Spanish boss Aitor Karanka, they scored 37 in 31. That's sixteen more games required to score a mere 12 extra goals. Boro also failed to score just twice under Mogga and Venus, as opposed to the eleven blanks under Karanka.
Were you to paint a picture of last season based on that information alone, you would wonder why Boro even appointed Karanka in the first place! But all it takes to put things in the proper perspective is... no, not Mogga's results over the course of 2013, though they do a perfect job in their own right... is the exclusion of the dreaded seven game Boro Nil period. Boro actually only blanked four times in Karanka's other 24 league games. Hardly a damning statistic.
Within weeks of his arrival, Karanka had brought stability, consistency and results to what was, despite what thrashings of Yeovil and Doncaster may have indicated, a sinking Boro ship. Yet even as the fleetingly fiery form of Emmanuel Ledesma briefly ignited play-off hopes, not everyone was convinced; AK's teams could certainly be criticised for letting fear of failure overtake inventive creativity, fears painfully, piercingly prominent when “Boro Nil” began.
Thankfully, the rot stopped when play-off pressure was lifted, Lee Tomlin had fully settled in and our first-choice striker, then Danny Graham, found his feet. At least to a point. Six wins in the last eight games, four goals each for Graham and Tomlin. And pre-season featured seven wins and just two defeats in nine games, with nineteen goals to enjoy.
You'd think that would leave us with something to look forward to for sure. But doubts still remain. Before AK had even taken charge, I likened him to his fellow Basque football man, Javier Clemente, and I retain that stance today. Until near the end of his reign as national team manager, Clemente's teams were renowned for their lack of class goalscorers; indeed, at times he played with no recognised centre forwards at all. Fast-forward to present day Boro. Barring new arrival Kike, an unknown quantity at Championship level, what centre forward can we truly believe in?
Clemente's Spanish sides, too, were notably assertive on their day, were deadly at punishing opposition errors, and were extremely difficult to beat. All attributes worthy of Aitor Karanka's Boro. But after that, you've got to ask, “Now what?” Consistency and quality do not always go hand in hand. If Boro are to have any chance of success this season, it will depend on how expressive AK allows our most creative players to be; and whether or not said players are capable of being as expressive as we want and need them to be.
PREDICTED STARTING XI AGAINST BIRMINGHAM:
Dimi Konstantopoulos; Emilio Nsue, Ben Gibson, Daniel Ayala, George Friend; Grant Leadbitter, Richie Smallwood; Albert Adomah, Lee Tomlin, Adam Reach; Kike.
Barring the right-back slot, there ought to be few questions about goalkeeping and defence. I agree with Anthony Vickers in that Dimi Konstantopoulos's experience should guarantee him a starting place ahead of Tomas Mejias. Vickers is also right regarding Kenneth Omeruo: he's not quite up to speed yet following his post-World Cup break. Therefore, it's not yet time for the much loved “Ken & Ben” partnership to rebloom; Daniel Ayala should start alongside Ben Gibson.
George Friend has made the left flank his own, but what about the right flank? As neither Damia Abella nor Emilio Nsue has received international clearance yet, Boro should be prepared to play David Atkinson there, just in case. Atkinson may well follow in the footsteps of David Wheater in 2007, cementing his place in defence due to unavailability of others. However, Nsue is likely to be cleared in time, and should certainly start on the right side of the back four if he is available. Along with Friend, he gives us a valuable additional attacking option should things go wrong.
Midfield is a little more complicated. The departure of Nate Chalobah leaves Boro without a clearly defined regista, someone who can set the tone of the game from deep with incisive passes. It will be left for Grant Leadbitter to play that role as best as he can alongside, ideally, Richie Smallwood, who I have always preferred to the more rigid Dean Whitehead. Perhaps last season's lone spell at Rotherham was merely AK's way of sending Smallwood out to gain experience while the likes of Chalobah helped build our confidence. Here's hoping.
That leaves the will-he-or-won't-he-stay Jacob Butterfield as our last viable midfield option. Butterfield, like the forgotten Kei Kamara, is extremely frustrating. You may enjoy watching him on his best days, but can you really count on him? Yes, he's offered fleeting moments of quality, sporadically flickering into life like the match-winning heroes we still dream of, but... but... I am still not convinced he knows where he really wants to play. His best hope, if he is to remain with Boro, is to re-invent himself as an alternative No. 10, something that Adam Clayton, were he to arrive, could not be. That gives us another option if injury, suspension or loss of form were to befall Lee Tomlin.
Either side of Tomlin, the selection of Albert Adomah and Adam Reach should be a no-brainer; especially Reach, thanks to a good pre-season. And Kike is certain to start up front. Although, with Marvin Emnes, Lukas Jutkiewicz and Curtis Main jettisoned, Boro have no obvious alternative No. 9s. Kamara, as I have already mentioned, cannot be depended upon; Luke Williams, like the crocked Emmanuel Ledesma, flickers rather than glows; and Bradley Fewster is unproven. On the plus side, it is believed Karanka is trying to resign Danny Graham, but how would will he take being second choice to Kike? And does his recent record of 6 goals in 18 Boro games really inspire confidence?
So many doubts, so many unanswered questions. But all we know for now is that the big kick-off is getting nearer... and I'm really looking forward to it.
Up The Boro!
(Originally published online at GazetteLive on August 8, 2014.)
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